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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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new year, and now a lot of those uncertainties have been wiped away with the budget ceiling and the tax situation that i think gives us a great deal of improvement, but as dandy don used to say when he hosted "monday night live," when it became obvious, he used to sing "turn out the lights, the party is over," and i think that's what's happening now. investors are realizing that the bond market party may be over, and it's time to shift to equities. >> let me ask you again. how are you allocating capital then in. >> we like a lot of sectors in the equity market. we like energy, materials and industrials, and some of the technology names are looking really pretty right now. >> rick, it's a perfect segue to you. he said the bond market party may be over. is it? >> well, no, i absolutely do not think so. here we are still toying with 2% as we get close to record highs in the dow jones industrial average. there's an incongruent relationship there, just like there's an incongruent relationship with the fact that we're talking about the dow near records, and tomorrow morning at 8:30 eastern i'
new year, and now a lot of those uncertainties have been wiped away with the budget ceiling and the tax situation that i think gives us a great deal of improvement, but as dandy don used to say when he hosted "monday night live," when it became obvious, he used to sing "turn out the lights, the party is over," and i think that's what's happening now. investors are realizing that the bond market party may be over, and it's time to shift to equities. >> let me ask you...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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. >> well, it adds about 100 billion of drag to what's already there from the tax increases we saw earlier in the month, and you put it all together and you've got 1.5% to 2% of fiscal drag instead of the usual boost so i think it will slow us pretty rapidly. you know, given that we're flat in the fourth quarter, it's not a good sign. >> when does the debt catch up to us then? i mean, do you worry about the $17 trillion debt, $16.4 trillion debt? when does that catch up? >> you know, i don't worry about it too much for two reasons. one, i tried to worry about it with japan and lost an awful lot of money betting on interest rates going up there. secondly, remember, interest rates on outstanding debt are about 80 basis point on average for the government so the debt interest rate burden is about 1.5% of gdp. that's about as low as it's ever been. we're lucky, but that's the way it is. >> lindsey, so what's the answer here? let's just assume that the -- that the sequester takes effect. >> sure. >> that you do have the pullback in spending. seems to me that would put an awful lot of pressure o
. >> well, it adds about 100 billion of drag to what's already there from the tax increases we saw earlier in the month, and you put it all together and you've got 1.5% to 2% of fiscal drag instead of the usual boost so i think it will slow us pretty rapidly. you know, given that we're flat in the fourth quarter, it's not a good sign. >> when does the debt catch up to us then? i mean, do you worry about the $17 trillion debt, $16.4 trillion debt? when does that catch up? >>...
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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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you know, i do have concerns about tax reform. i think the general consensus is that nothing will happen to munis in the debt ceiling talks, but there is a lot of talk about tax reform having some form of tax or limit on deductions for municipalities, and i -- i definitely think that's a possibility. >> okay. so the impact is you're worried about this? >> i'm concerned. i think that everything is on the table. that's what we've heard from washington, and it's hard to make the argument for munis against the argument for charitable deductions, against the argument for mortgage deductions, so i do think it's something that people need to be cautious about. as a result if i were an investor right now, i would be investing with a shorter duration. and i've said this a lot over the last couple of years, with all the things that have gone on, i would have a professional managing my municipal money, whether it's in a mutual fund, an etf or separately managed account. >> having said that, what are your picks, a few muni picks? >> i did lon
you know, i do have concerns about tax reform. i think the general consensus is that nothing will happen to munis in the debt ceiling talks, but there is a lot of talk about tax reform having some form of tax or limit on deductions for municipalities, and i -- i definitely think that's a possibility. >> okay. so the impact is you're worried about this? >> i'm concerned. i think that everything is on the table. that's what we've heard from washington, and it's hard to make the...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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the estate tax which lets your charitable giving not be taxed is clearly a very positive encouragement to look at giving. i'd say that even more than the taxes, though, the fact that there's more examples of people where -- so everyone is asking themselves, you know, could i be giving you something, the fact that they hear the impact is very strong, i think the kind of social movement is even more, but the tax structure helps. >> what continuing investment is needed at this point? in other words who are the biggest stakeholders you want to reach that you haven't reached yet that haven't been as generous as they could? is this process harder as we see austerity taking place all around the world? >> well, the money that helps out the poorest overwhelmingly comes from government aid budgets and so what kind of priority that gets say in the u.s. budget process over the next four or five years i'd say is pretty unclear. will the generosity go up? will it be cut proportionately? or will it suffer a disproportionate cut, you know? unless we tell the aids story very well, you know, i'd be quit
the estate tax which lets your charitable giving not be taxed is clearly a very positive encouragement to look at giving. i'd say that even more than the taxes, though, the fact that there's more examples of people where -- so everyone is asking themselves, you know, could i be giving you something, the fact that they hear the impact is very strong, i think the kind of social movement is even more, but the tax structure helps. >> what continuing investment is needed at this point? in...